I am one of the lucky ones who has had the chance to know and work for years with Josean Arruza, Professor of Psychology at the University of the Basque Country. Together, we have helped the paddlers in our working group improve their performance and gain consistency in competition. Between meetings and coffee breaks at the Picachilla bar in Donostia, I became increasingly interested in one of the pillars of his approach: the work of psychologist and Nobel Prize winner in Economics, Daniel Kahneman.
As a member of the National Team, I have also been fortunate to attend countless meetings over the years, where we have worked to design the best pathways for the future of high-level competition in our beloved sport.
In these meetings, where future projections flow freely and everything seems possible, there is always someone who, in an instant, turns everything upside down and sows doubt in what seemed to be a triumphant path toward our goals. At that moment, that person is resented, especially by the one who has to present the plan to the higher-ups. Everything made sense… until it didn’t.
Kahneman explains that we tend to perceive and process information under the influence of excessive optimism, which shapes our decisions and future planning. In sports organizations, teams set their own objectives, which must be presented to higher authorities. Naturally, the more ambitious they are, the more appealing they seem.
According to Kahneman, those who design these projects follow an internal logic in which each step leads smoothly to the next. I have attended meetings where this logic turns into a feast of successful intermediate milestones, without a single obstacle. However, we often fail to consider all the constraints that could affect the process, let alone how these constraints might interact. Kahneman calls this the “inside view.”
This is where the “pessimist” comes into play — who, in reality, is simply a more precise optimist. This person adopts what Kahneman refers to as the “outside view”: instead of following the internal logic of the project, they set it aside and analyze data from past similar situations or other comparable projects. This approach makes projections more accurate (though still optimistic) and minimizes miscalculations.
In his book The False Illusion of Success, Kahneman teaches us that, as a rule, we must temper our optimism. Only then can we avoid unnecessary failures and focus our efforts on what truly matters.
